Washington, D.C. — As destructive wildfires continue to burn across Oregon and the West, Oregon U.S. Senators Jeff Merkley and Ron Wyden are joining a bipartisan group of senators urging federal regulators to stop the expansion of prediction markets that allow people to wager on the course and impacts of wildfires.
In a letter sent Monday to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig, Merkley, Wyden and seven other Democratic senators called on the agency to prohibit event contracts that allow betting on natural disasters, warning the markets raise serious ethical, public safety and insider trading concerns.
The lawmakers argue that allowing people to profit from wildfire outcomes risks turning community tragedies into financial speculation while potentially creating incentives for criminal activity.
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” the senators wrote. “There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful.”
The letter comes as Oregon experiences another active wildfire season, with multiple large fires prompting evacuations and threatening homes across Central Oregon in recent weeks. Local communities have faced repeated evacuation notices, road closures and heavy firefighting efforts as crews continue battling fast-moving blazes.
The senators cited reports that the prediction market platform Polymarket accepted more than $1.2 million in wagers related to the devastating Palisades and Eaton fires that struck the Los Angeles area in January 2025. Those fires killed 31 people and destroyed more than 16,000 structures.
They also pointed to reports of another prediction market platform built around simulated wildfire trading, arguing that such products normalize speculation on disasters.
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events. While supporters argue the markets can aggregate information and forecast outcomes, critics contend contracts tied to disasters, wars and public emergencies create moral and regulatory concerns because participants may have financial incentives tied to tragic events.
In their letter, the senators asked whether the CFTC plans to prohibit designated contract markets from offering wildfire-related contracts as part of ongoing rulemaking and whether the agency intends to address similar contracts offered through offshore platforms.
They also requested the commission’s position on contracts allowing wagers over questions such as how long a wildfire will burn, how much acreage it will consume, or how much damage it will cause.
The lawmakers requested the CFTC respond by Aug. 14th.
In addition to Merkley and Wyden, the letter was signed by Sens. Alex Padilla of California, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Adam Schiff of California, Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota.
Merkley has previously advocated for tighter federal oversight of prediction markets, including legislation aimed at prohibiting betting on elections, government actions, military conflicts and other events he argues are contrary to the public interest. He has also introduced legislation intended to bar members of Congress and other senior public officials from trading event contracts to reduce the risk of insider trading and conflicts of interest.
Mr. Alderman is an investigative journalist specializing in government transparency, non-profit accountability, consumer protection, and is a subject matter expert on Oregon’s public records and meetings laws. As a former U.S. Army Military Police Officer, he brings a disciplined investigative approach to his reporting that has frequently exposed ethics violations, financial mismanagement, and transparency failures by public officials and agencies.
